Calibrating software reliability models when the test environment does not match the user environment

Software failures have become the major factor that brings the system down or causes a degradation in the quality of service. For many applications, estimating the software failure rate from a user's perspective helps the development team evaluate the reliability of the software and determine the release time properly. Traditionally, software reliability growth models are applied to system test data with the hope of estimating the software failure rate in the field. Given the aggressive nature by which the software is exercised during system test, as well as unavoidable differences between the test environment and the field environment, the resulting estimate of the failure rate will not typically reflect the user‐perceived failure rate in the field. The goal of this work is to quantify the mismatch between the system test environment and the field environment. A calibration factor is proposed to map the failure rate estimated from the system test data to the failure rate that will be observed in the field. Non‐homogeneous Poisson process models are utilized to estimate the software failure rate in both the system test phase and the field. For projects that have only system test data, use of the calibration factor provides an estimate of the field failure rate that would otherwise be unavailable. For projects that have both system test data and previous field data, the calibration factor can be explicitly evaluated and used to estimate the field failure rate of future releases as their system test data becomes available. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

信用担保风险的模糊综合评审研究

信用担保机构是连接银行和企业的桥梁，对于改善企业融资环境和拓展银行业务具有重要意义，信用担保风险的评审是担保机构能否生存及有效运行的关键。信用风险的评审机制主观性强，对担保项目进行客观，公正的评审比较困难。本采用模糊数学中的综合判别方法，全面考虑风险评审所涵盖的各种风险指标及其重要度，建立了定性分析与定量分析方法相结合的信用担保风险综合评审模型，为担保机构提供了一种相对科学、客观的评审方法。     

鞅方法在一类破产问题中的应用

本文从鞅条件出发 ,推导出了总理赔过程分别为复合 Poisson过程与复合二项过程 ,利率强度波动为带跳的 Poisson过程情形下的调节方程 ,并由此得到了一些有趣的结果。     

Likelihood Ratio Processes for Markovian Particle Systems with Killing and Jumps

We consider Markov processes built from pasting together pieces of strong Markov processes which are killed at a position dependent rate and connected via a transition kernel. We give necessary and sufficient conditions for local absolute continuity of probability laws for such processes on a suitable path space and derive an explicit formula for the corresponding likelihood ratio process. The main tool is the consideration of the process between successive jumps – what we call ‘elementary experiments’ – and criteria for absolute continuity of laws of the process there. We apply our results to systems of branching diffusions with interactions and immigrations. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

一致Banach空间中非扩张映象的弱收敛定理

设犈是一致凸Ｂａｎａｃｈ空间，满足Ｏｐｉａｌ条件或具有Ｆｒｅｃｈｅｔ可微范数，犆是犈的非空闭凸子集，且犜：犆→犆是非扩张映象．又设对任何初始数据狓１ ∈犆，序列｛狓狀｝由下列修改了的Ｉｓｈｉｋａｗａ迭代程序生成：狓狀＋１ ＝狋狀犜狀（狊狀犜狀狓狀＋ （１－狊狀）狓狀）＋ （１－狋狀）狓狀，　狀≥１， （Ｉ）其中，数列｛狋狀｝与｛狊狀｝满足下列条件（ｉ）和（ｉｉ）之一：（ｉ）狋狀∈ ［犪，犫］且狊狀∈ ［０，犫］；（ｉｉ）狋狀∈ ［犪，１］且狊狀∈ ［犪，犫］，这里，常数犪，犫满足０＜犪≤犫＜１．作者证明了，犜有不动点的充要条件是，｛狓狀｝ 弱收敛且｛‖狓狀－犜狓狀‖｝收敛到０．而且，由此即知，若犜有不动点，则｛狓狀｝弱收敛到犜的一个不动点．     

Estimation of integrated volatility in stochastic volatility models

In the framework of stochastic volatility models we examine estimators for the integrated volatility based on the pth power variation (i.e. the sum of pth absolute powers of the log‐returns). We derive consistency and distributional results for the estimators given high‐frequency data, especially taking into account what kind of process we may add to our model without affecting the estimate of the integrated volatility. This may on the one hand be interpreted as a possible flexibility in modelling, for example adding jumps or even leaving the framework of semimartingales by adding a fractional Brownian motion, or on the other hand as robustness against model misspecification. We will discuss possible choices of p under different model assumptions and irregularly spaced data. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Design for Automation of Pellet-Forming Process in HL-2A Pellet Fueling System

In the ever fusion experiments in SWIP, pellet forming process was carried out through adjusting relative devices by staff member in site, which will make every pellet-forming process slight distinction and will result in pellet difference in shape, size and intensity. In the intervals of HL-2A discharges, staff member have to go site to accomplish the pellet-forming process, this wastes human power and increase the potential danger. So it is necessary to develop a remote control system to perform the pellet-forming process. The control system needs have the features of real-time, reliability and be easy to operate and maintain.     

两个安全第一思想模型的比较分析

针对投资者可能的投资需求确立了基于安全第一思想下两个相近的投资目标:1、极大化投资末期总收益率超过给定水平α的概率;2、极小化投资末期总收益率与给定水平α的距离.并分别就这两个目标建立了优化决策模型,得到了模型解析解,最后对两个模型结果进行了比较分析和经济解释.     

Cu(II)-catalyzed enantioselective aldol condensation between malonic acid hemithioesters and aldehydes

A mild, decarboxylative, aldol-type addition of malonic acid hemithioesters to aldehydes has been shown to occur with up to 39% enantioselectivity when the reaction was carried out in the presence of catalytic amounts of a Cu(II) salt, an enantiopure, tartaric acid-derived bis-benzimidazole and an achiral base.     

Stochastic analysis in life office management: applications to large annuity portfolios

The paper deals with the riskiness analysis for a large portfolio of life annuities. By means of the limiting distribution of the present value of the portfolio, in the first part of the paper a model for evaluating the investment and the projection risks is presented. In the second part, with regard to the investment risk's effects, the insolvency risk is measured considering the cumulative probability distribution function of the discounted average cost per policy. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.